I’m probably overthinking this but when selecting the category for events/races do you use your FTP or your predicted power for the route? For example my FTP is 2.6w/kg. If I sign up for a short event, say <10km, should I bump it up or stick with that?
I’d stick with your category based on FTP. Everyone else should do the same, so in theory it’s still a level(ish) playing field. It’s far too complicated to try working out different categories for different people based on race length - even without taking rider phenotype into account.
It’s similar to flat races versus hilly races. One is going to suit some people more than others.