Blue and grey numbers in "upcoming events"

The numbers shown in the “upcoming events” on the main screen (old version) seem to have changed their function recently and I’ve been trying to figure out what they mean.

I have always assumed that the blue number used to show the number of your followers who had signed up for the event and the grey number was the total who had signed up?

It now seems like the blue number is the total who have signed up while the grey is the number of people who have signed up and are currently logged into Zwift?

The blue number is now always more than the grey number and if you scroll down the list the grey number will usually be zero if the event starts in an hour or more (because most people who have signed up wouldn’t be Zwifting an hour before their event starts).

Are my assumptions correct or am I missing something?

It doesn’t* work correctly on the new home screen (it counts people in the pens, so most of them say 0) so I would guess they’re messing about with it at present.

*Last time I checked