You’re 100% right Paul.
Many Zwift users are totally unfamiliar with their power curve, or how it correlates to racing etc. Zwift could greatly help new riders understand this in their first qualifying race tutorial.
The facts are that certain riders will win a majority of certain races. It’s exactly what happens in real world cycling. I’ve spoken about this multiple times here. You cannot expect to win, it’s a totally unrealistic expectation.
If however, you have the genetic potential and the appropriate training, you may excel at certain races. If you are a fast twitch athlete with a very powerful sprint, it is highly likely that you will do well in short crit races. As you would in real life.
If you have a fantastic FTP, low weight and high sustained power, you’ll do well on mountain top finishes. As you would in real life.
If you don’t have these qualities, you’ll very rarely win, if ever. As it would be in real world racing.
That’s how it works. Not everyone gets a lollipop.
Now, this bumping racers up categories based on race results… This is very complex, as explained, certain riders will win a majority of certain races. It’s literally not their fault, they are exceptional at certain things. It’s why they win. So, do we artificially penalize these riders because they are good at climbing, or sprinting etc?
That is easier said than done. It’s why a results based system is complex in cycling. It’s complex in real life, and virtually. The W/kg levels and various grades are based on nothing other than a number. There is no mythical line separating an athletes physiology in real life. The racing categories are just their for us weaker riders to experience a fun equal race.
Without them, none of us would ever win a race, or even come close to it. The elite riders would win every single race. Without fail. Which they should.
So, we invented category and age group racing. For us average humans to experience better racing. Triathlon for example does very well by including age group racing. People find it rewarding. However, it is an illusion. If you win a C grade race, you haven’t actually won anything. In front of you are 50 Bs and another 50 As, they all beat you… all of them.
What we all want is a fun race experience. Group people into similar abilities. Stop stronger riders dropping down into lower races and ruining our experience.
What will still happen, is the better sprinters will still win a majority of the crit races, regardless of A,B,C,D etc. This is how cycling works. It’s what is to be expected.
This could only be changed by Zwift tweaking the fundamental math that the game runs on. Currently, Zwift does not provide enough draft affect. It also significantly rewards groups average speed over individuals riders etc.
This means riders cannot breakaway, late race attacks almost never win. So, Zwift races are a bunch of people riding together at sweetspot or threshold with a fast final 1min, then a sprint. Most races play out exactly like this. It rewards the people that suit this style of racing.
So, my message to the folk at Zwift. Let’s start by simply not allowing stronger riders to enter certain races. Maybe, not even all races. Let the event organizers decide on how they want their races to play out.
I’d be stoked with a single race on the hour, every hour, that ran the new enforced category system.
We just try this for a few weeks and we see how it works. Easy.