There is even a third at 9.6km so you could very well take that one also. The last one is just before the finish.
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I got the bike on my first and fourth spins. I’ve received it several more times.
I like the do the full ride and get whatever you haven’t yet. You would start with a full wheel and it would shrink as you go along.
And I late start for the 250XP. It’s hard doing two or three full runs when you are recovering from the 'Rona.
I agree with this, hopefully for next year they make this change. If you complete the full route it should spin to something you haven’t won yet. I have gotten 8 spins on the France route and can’t get the kit or headphones. So frustrating…
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Someone mentioned if you get a PR on the course you are more likely to get the bike.
In comparison ADZ spinner is miserable with wheels, but once you get them first time it’s common to get them 3-4 per week (assuming you ride ADZ daily).
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Interesting. I wonder what the data is behind that claim. I tried the ‘group you are placed with depends on your wattage when you click Join’ thing above. Didn’t seem to make any noticeable difference.
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That person has done a ot more riding than you or I do - that’s the data. Seems to have found the pattern.
You’ll have to do the full course to try that for yourself.
It would have been nice if there was an effort to make the events rotate on the catch up week for variety. If you ride at the same hour every day, you’re going to be getting the same route every time. I understand it’s a factor of 4 routes/24 hours, but there could have been a point in the day where it skips one to shift everything.
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Yeah I dunno. One person’s experiences isn’t going to carry much weight for me. One person over 4 stages, even with repeats, isn’t going to generate enough data points to be statistically significant, I’d think. Particularly not when it’s a matter of PRing a course–how many times will that one guy have PRed a route across repeats of 4 stages?
Sounds more like someone upset about late joiners trying to con more people into riding the whole route–and ‘race-riding’ it to boot 
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Yeah, I PR’d a coupla the courses and it didn’t make a figs worth of difference. Still took 39 spins to get the bike. And then I got a second bike on my 50th spin. Neither was a PR either but they were on Wasteband and I’ve done a coupla thousands loops of that and a race or two so PR’s are gonna hard to make there…
Well I am at 43 spins with no bike. I can’t explain how frustrated I am. I have tried everything, late join, lots of full laps, free riding the course, sprinting for the banner. Lots of my spins have been full laps as well. I don’t need extra drops - I have 265 million. There is something not right, I just cannot be this unlucky surely???
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It’s random. Randomness includes long significant-looking streaks.
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@shooj @James_Zwift I’ve won the BMX bike multiple times, please give one of them to Cat, surely she deserves it.
Kind regards,
Mike
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Let’s do some basic maths. And let’s hope I don’t embarrass myself here by getting the maths completely wrong. We will find out if I get corrected by an actual mathematician.
We don’t know what the probability of getting the BMX is on a single spin. Let’s say it’s 5%, i.e. a 1 in 20 chance each time. It doesn’t matter too much whether my guess is close to the reality or not, I just want to try and illustrate how probability works (because it’s often misunderstood).
If you have a 5% change with one spin, then there’s a 95% chance you won’t get it on a single spin.
If you do two spins, then the chance you don’t get the BMX is 95% x 95% = 90.25%
For four spins, the chance you don’t get the BMX is 95% x 95% x 95% x 95% = 81.45%
Ok, so now let’s look at your 43 spins. What is the chance of not getting the bike if it has a 1 in 20 chance on any one spin (a big assumption, but the principle is the same no matter the odds)?
For 43 spins, the chance of not getting the BMX is 95% ^43 (to the power of 43) = 11%
So you might think that with a 1 in 20 chance, 20 spins would be enough to almost certainly get you the bike, but it wouldn’t be - with more than twice thar number, then 11 people out of 100 still won’t have got the bike. It’s not like we’re talking 1 in millions or similar.
If the chance of getting the BMX on each spin is 10% (which sounds a bit high to me) then the chance of not getting it after 43 spins is still around 1%. So being 1 in 100 in this case would be unlucky, but given the many thousands/millions of users on Zwift, there will still be tons of people who havent got the bike after 43 spins.
So randomness and probability are often misunderstood. Whatever the actual odds of getting the BMX on one spin, the odds of anyone not getting it after dozens of spins are likely higher than you’d think.
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There’s a fun parlor trick you can do. Have one person flip a coin 100 times and write down the results, and have a second person write down 100 results they make up on their own–but they’re trying to make them look random.
You leave the room while they do this. When you come back in, you take the two lists and guess which one was actually flipping a coin and which was making up numbers.
The list with long strings of HHHHHHHH or TTTTTTT is the actual coin flipper. Because no one thinks that randomly flipping a coin would get you a streak like that 
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I am the only one!
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You know this how?
I posted it on FaceBook Zwift Riders - so this is a source of truth 
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@Crazy-Cat Stay with it. Took me 39 spins and I didn’t get a second one until #50. I rode with Eric Min yesterday and he didn’t have it so there’s apparently no way to circumvent the randomness…
To get more spins/hour, ride the Stage 4 route, Wasteband with an after party lap. If you can keep your pace above about 2.5w/kg you’ll finish the second lap with about 5 minutes of late join of the next ride to go. Late join, rinse, repeat. I actually got my BMX bike on one of those after party laps…
I have now done 47 spins and no bike 