If they can do 5 for a few minutes they can do 2.7 for 20, they just don’t want/have to.
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I think this is a bit like Cav, but with lower numbers. He can put out great numbers and is pretty good in time trials, but in flat races likely to end in a bunch sprint he drafts as much as possible and saves himself for the sprint finish. If he knows he can’t win, he saves himself for the next day / race.
The same thing happens in Zwift racing. It’s almost as if some people try to emulate the tactics of one of the greatest sprinters of all time, but with lower numbers! 
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I don’t agree. Sure, if the rider can do 5w/kg for 30 seconds or so. But not if they can keep that up for a few minutes.
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I don’t think a D rider is just a linearly scaled down version of a World Tour rider. The power curve has a different profile (the difference is relatively less on the left side, I think). The tactics can of course be the same if the competition is relatively equal.
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I think we discussed this before, but you can relatively accurately model threshold power using Morton’s 3P Model which is, in effect, a generalisation of the 95% 20 min rule across the whole power curve. intervals.icu do this, with different curves for male/female and rider types (I assume maybe age and also power itself, although I’m not 100% sure).
It takes any max effort from 3 mins to 20 mins to build the curve. You can change the starting point to make it a longer duration than 3 mins which will improve reliability, but capture fewer efforts.
This is called eFTP in intervals.icu, which over 2 years of use I have found tracks real FTP very accurately (or accurately enough, seeing as FTP is a somewhat abstract concept anyway), to the extent that I have not needed to do a single FTP test to reset training zones in that period. eFTP fatigues over time, with newer qualifying max efforts bumping it back up again.
Whilst the above may seem complex, this is some pretty simple coding by a single person. You could just store the estimated FTP value and use it as the power metric / input for pen assignment. It’s like today’s 20 min power, but a million times better as it does not rely on a max effort as long as 20 mins.
Considering most Zwifters don’t understand FTP, can’t test well, or just hate testing, it would also have huge value outside of racing for setting training zones and measuring fitness progression within Zwift.
If I worked at HQ (heaven forbid, can you imagine) I would chuck a load of cash at David from intervals for the code and have it in ZP ASAP.
Aside - the reason efforts under 3 mins are not used, is that the ATP-CP energy system (sprints, short bursts) is so separate from the aerobic and glycolytic systems it simply cannot be used to assess longer duration ability. As alluded to above, you can have a legitimate cat D rider that can out 1800w sprints, but can’t hold 200w for 20 mins.
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I hadn’t heard of intervals.icu before. It looks very interesting and since I hate FTP tests and have one in the next few days (I have it as the last work out in the build me up plan) I’ll definitely check it out.
I’m now in shock that I may have gotten something useful out of this almost 3k long thread
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I don’t bother with FTP tests, but have looked at my eFTP now and then, and it correlates very well with “what I feel I can do for one hour” at that time.
It would be great if Zwift could track it.
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Actually, I CAN imagine but then I wake up and realize it was just a very pleasant dream.
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That makes sense to me and tactics and psychology will have a greater impact with some people more than others - the more a person wants to be “like x or y professional rider”, the more they’ll try to act like that.
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yes this is exactly what I was thinking of when I wrote my previous. I’ve also found intervals.icu to be pretty reliable. Of course it’s not going to be perfect but 5W/kg for even 2 mins (say) is simply not compatible with being a genuine D cat rider.
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Pleasant for you maybe, probably less so for both myself and Zwift.
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Correct, that is why all that is needed is race performance. Nothing else.
Do we really need to have the talk about what ranking is again?
A sandbagger will only race lower in order to do well. If they do well, their ranking will go up. If they do poorly, we don’t care anyway.
If their ranking goes up, then they’ll end up getting upgraded.
That’s all there’s to it.
If you want to try to optimize initial seeding, you can do that at some approximation that doesn’t need to be particularly accurate. The ranking will sort itself out.
If you want to try to curb some other kind of cheating, then you can try to define it and tackle it specifically. Just don’t try to bundle everything up in some single magical algorithm that solves everything. It’s folly.
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100%
eFTP is very effective and can be combined with further models to offer greater accuracy.
No specific testing required. Well kind of. You do need at least one maximum effort, preferably longer than 3 minutes for greater accuracy. Over time, as you feed the model it becomes more accurate.
Why Zwift haven’t added this tech confuses me. 20min FTP testing is the dark ages. Modeled FTP is the modern approach for Zwifts unique scenario. Integrating intervals.icu into Zwift as their ‘pro level’ data package would be a very wise decision.
It’s the best easy to use cycling data software available.
You’re right about the power curve, it’s wildly different at short durations. Top sprinters exceed 25w/kg for 5sec. Those same sprinters are rarely much more the 3.5w/kg FTP. Some are far lower.
It seems many Zwifters have little or no understanding of physiology, particularly in regards to rider phenotype. It’s a shame, as it leads to some unnecessary finger pointing.
Really we should submit our power profile and be given our wins or losses. No need for this actual racing malarkey 
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This isn’t just an anti-sandbagging tool, it will also take away the advantage legally punchy riders have in the fast starts. The fast starts are something we see in other disciplines as well, where the total race time is relatively short. I think it is a natural part of the Zwift racing format as it has developed.
I expect it’s because they’d have to licence it. And considering how big Zwift is, the technology owner would want a hefty sum for that.
After the Zwift Academy, I was pleased to see an email from Zwift saying they’d “crunched my numbers” and told me what type of rider was. It’d be great if they can expand/build on this in future.
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I wonder if more widespread pen enforcement would ameliorate the problem anyway - as a B riding up in A a lot, I really don’t find the starts that much of a problem. And it’s not that the front end of the race couldn’t easily drop me if they tried, as they demonstrate at the first hint of a hill or sprint. B/C/D riders have probably got so used to having to hang on to a cheating A/B/C that they all go flat out just in case.
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Keep it up, team! Only 200 more posts to go for the big 3,000!
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@Daren This sub-thread is more like a feature request. Maybe it should be moved?
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I would guess there are several feature requests on this topic already! 
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