What could happen is a small studio currently under (or aiming to get acquired by) a big nasty umbrella publisher decides to enter the home training niche. That could actually happen. Coincidentally, the big publishers own the big game engines (=lower dev costs) and game development with those game engines is relatively easy, if you will. Plus they have the market under their thumb. There’s a scenario, for sure.
Barriers of entry for said small developer into the home training market? Sure, there always is in any business. But would it be any worse than to go up gainst the competitors in established traditional game genres? No. Not at all. You could even argue for the opposite. Let’s see now…
Need for special technical/scientific knowhow relating to cycling that’s hard to get into, even more so to model accurately? Hah! Any serious developer will have to get into physics to model any 3D game convincingly, or history, or whatever research is needed. Go check out DCS as a true horror example. That’s very advanced physics modeling, and it’s just a game!
Too small a market? Not for a small developer, and certainly not with a subscription payment model. There are many examples of smaller games, even subscription games, with a lasting appeal that are/were still profitable. One of my favorite examples is Trion Worlds, who went up against World of Warcraft during its glory days with their own MMORPG. Yes, it was a small franchise. Niche even. It seemed like a corporate suicide attempt at release. But they were profitable all the way for years, probably still are. They settled for small and had a plan.
They’d have to get into esoteric hardware (smart trainers), would anyone really bite? Not more difficult than getting into any other peripheral like VR sets, or any new generation of graphics cards for that matter. Any trainer manufacturer will gladly offer SDK’s, documentation and consultation to anyone who seems like they could credibly help increase sales. Flash your big publisher business card and you have a sales pitch in your calendar already next week.
They’d have to truly understand the subscribers and they don’t. Any chance any of them does a bit of running, cycling, x-country skiing or similar and has a STRAVA account? How difficult on a scale is it to understand the psyche of a MAMIL? Please… The traditional gaming kids are much harder to please and to get under the skin of. But us? Just dangle some hot hardware in front of us, virtual or real. Just tell us your game isn’t for us but only for hardmen and we’ll buy into it in a heartbeat or we risk losing bragging rights around the coffee machine Monday morning. We’re such an easy sell. The women you catch by proxy later on, delighted that there is a female market at all.
They wouldn’t know how to attract an audience and how to tend to and interact with a community? cough Valve… I rest my case. And they are far from the only experts in the field.
But… if I was such a developer, I’d wait until Zwift had spent its new $450 mill on hardware development and flattened out in their subscriber acquisition and harware sales. Then I’d strike. Let someone else do the hard work claiming territory. Then just relieve them of it.
New Zwift hardware locked to Zwift? Question is if they dare to. They most likely won’t dare to lock out Wahoo, Tacx and Elite anyway. And what a competitor with more muscle would want to do (although not as a first step) is to force an industry standard in smart trainers. A standard set of features any smart trainer is expected to have. We’re not quite there yet. Indoor cycling won’t really take off until that happens.
Anyway, all of this is a ticking bomb and Zwift set it off themselves. And no, I don’t trust them to diffuse it in time. Not at all.
Just look at their move towards gaming, which came all too late. They brought on Ilkka Paanen! Oh dear… I don’t know where to start. It’s just so wrong. Yes, he’s a big name. But in mobile gaming! Mobile gaming isn’t community gaming. They’re cutting themselves so short, not realizing the potential at all. And besides, Paanen’s stardom expertise within gaming is really only one thing, namely how to squeeze out micropayments from people who didn’t really plan to make them. They could have asked any random casino mobster instead. Zwift isnt Pay To Win and will never work as such. And it isn’t micro attention either since you’re looking at subscribers spending hours in the saddle. Just because it’s outdated and simplistic enough to run on a mobile doesn’t make Zwift a mobile game. It’s oh so far removed from mobile gaming. But now with Paanen as an investor they might actually have to listen to the guy and they shouldn’t.
I agree with you, @Daniel_Andersson. In the perfect world it would be Valve themselves going up against the current market players in home training and virtual sports. They’d know exactly where to go next. I talked to Gabe Newell once. Ages ago, way before Steam. He showed me their latest hacks. Cutting edge, super cool stuff. I was drooling. But he himself seemed so utterly uninterested in it. Like he was just bored to death with it and his mind was elsewhere. It took a few years before I understood where that “elsewhere” was: the future. At least I understood immediately that we had to keep an eye on that guy from then on and I did.